Movie Monkey's Oscar Picks

No self-proclaimed, self-respecting movie monkey could let this day pass without some reference to tonight's Academy Awards festivities, arguably the most significant (though not necessarily the most critically relevant) reflection of the state of movies today. People seem more consumed with what people are wearing than with the content of their movies.

For me, when I'm picking the winners, I’m always caught between who I want to win and who I think will win. The reason for this is that Academy voters are notorious for not seeing the movies nominated or letting their personal or political feelings influence their choices. As a result, it’s not always the most deserving person who wins (note to Marissa Tomei).

So, without further ado, here are my picks* in the major categories (do you really care who wins for Best Catering in an Animated Short Film?). Enjoy the show and we’ll check back tomorrow to see how I did:

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond
I’ve always been impressed with his abilities and shrewd project choices. It would be great if he won but the competition is just too good.

Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson
I’ve been watching his career with great interest ever since I saw him in The Believer. This boy can act, and he does it quietly, without fanfare. He’s my personal pick but again, I think it’s not his time yet.

Peter O’Toole – Venus
I can’t believe this fellow hasn’t won an Oscar yet (not counting his lifetime achievement award in 2003). He’s long overdue but the low-key movie may have flown under Academy members’ radar.

Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness
A likeable superstar but I don’t think this is the one.

*Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
A veteran of memorable supporting performances, this is the year for him to shine. From all accounts, the performance is unstoppable.

Best Actress

Penelope Cruz – Volver

Judi Dench – Notes on a Scandal
Dench is always riveting to watch (except in The Chronicles of Riddick) but she will lose to another Queen.

*Helen Mirren – The Queen
If there is ever a sure thing in Hollywood, it’s that Helen Mirren will continue her award reign.

Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Always watchable, always interesting. But I fear the role is too lightweight.

Kate Winslet – Little Children
Possible heir to the award throne (this is her fifth nomination), for now she’ll just have to be satisfied with her Lady in Waiting Status.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine
An amusing and crustily, heart-tugging performance but not enough to win the gold.

*Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls
Hollywood loves a comeback and after all the flops that Murphy has churned out over the past years, this just might be the role that confirms his dramatic abilities. Let’s just hope the Academy hasn’t seen Norbit yet.

Mark Wahlberg – The Departed
Indeed a significant role, acted flawlessly – but is it significant enough?

Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond
This fellow can do noble oppression with his hands tied behind him. I’d love to see him win because there are only so many such roles left, but I don't think he'll beat Murphy's momentum.

Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children
Hollywood Comeback Part 2. With nothing of significance to offer since his late teens, this would indeed be a resounding comeback – if not for Eddie Murphy.

Best Supporting Actress

Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine

*Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls

Cate Blanchett - Babel

Adriana Barraza - Babel

This is the category I feel I’m least qualified to comment on since I’ve not seen Babel yet, but in this case I don’t think it matters. Jennifer Hudson’s fairytale climb from American Idol castoff to Oscar nominee has a story arc that must climax with an Academy Award.

Finally,

Best Picture

Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
*The Departed
The Queen

With Clint Eastwood already a multiple winner and barring a politically correct upset by Babel, this should be the year of Scorsese – best Director and Best Picture.

So, there you go. I could be wrong, very wrong. And these awards seldom influence my viewing tendencies, but it is fun to play along.